I saw an interesting article on risk stratification in healthcare and pondered its application to project delivery. Its from 2015 but certainly worth a read.
“Ultimately, the evidence suggests that clinicians are less accurate than risk stratification tools at predicting risk. Indeed, a study by Allaudeen and colleagues found that the predictions made by junior doctors, senior doctors, nurses and case managers were statistically no different from chance”.
As datasets grow and data quality improves we will have a huge opportunity to apply statistical methods. The end goal will be to identify which projects are predisposed to which risks (responding to the project conditions and phase) and what interventions are likely to be successful. More importantly, instead of estimating low, medium or high for probability and impact we should be able to apply statistical methods to recalculate this in real time using machine learning.
But the primary obstacle to realising this vision is access to data. Lots and lots of data.